DCID Policy Brief Highlights Links Between Migration at U.S. Border and Climate Change, Violence in Central America

In a policy brief released by the Duke Center for International Development, Associate Professor Sarah Bermeo and co-author David Leblang, University of Virginia, share the results of a study on the root causes of migration from Honduras, with a particular emphasis on the interconnected role of climate change and violence.

The authors link U.S. government data on the department (state) of birth for Honduran families apprehended between 2012 and 2019 to department-level measures of rainfall volatility and homicide rates in Honduras. The results indicate that decreases in precipitation are associated with increased migrant flows and that the magnitude of this effect increases with higher levels of violence. These findings can inform discussions about root causes of migration and policy responses.

View Honduras Migration: Climate Change, Violence & Assistance Policy Brief (PDF)