Second Order Impacts of Aggression Toward Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China

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By Kyle Beardsley, Clara Park and Pei-Yu Wei

View "Second Order Impacts of Aggression Toward Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China."

With tensions in the Taiwan Strait on the rise, the goal of this report is to identify how an increase in hostilities towards Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) could impact global economies and industries. The threat has grown in recent years, as the PRC asserts with increasing provocations its long-held claim that Taiwan is part of mainland China, while the Taiwan government seeks to maintain its de facto independence. The importance of understanding the risk profile of aggression directed by the PRC to Taiwan is underscored by the impact on world economies of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Unprepared at the time of the initial attack for the extent of Russian aggression, global policymakers were forced to scramble to prevent widespread damage to food systems. Against a backdrop of growing PRC hostilities in the Taiwan Strait, the research that makes up the body of this report is designed to provide a foundation for ensuring greater preparedness in the event of further PRC aggression.