Trade re-routing research co-authored by Edmund Malesky cited by NYT

Photograph by Linh Pham

A Harvard Business School study co-authored by Edmund Malesky, professor of political economy and director of the Duke Center for International Development, examines whether rerouting goods through intermediary countries to avoid origin-specific tariffs increased due to the 2018-2019 U.S.–China trade war via Vietnam.

The research study was cited by The New York Times in the Dec. 17 article, “Trump’s Tariffs Helped Northern Vietnam Boom Like Never Before. What Now?" written by Damien Cave.

The article discusses the impact President Trump’s second term could have on Vietnam's economy amid U.S.-China trade tensions. While north Vietnam benefited from the global search for alternatives to Chinese manufacturing, it is unclear whether a second Trump term will impede or accelerate that growth.

Cave, Vietnam bureau chief and global affairs correspondent for The New York Times, wrote, “A recent Harvard Business School study showed that illegal tariff avoidance was more rare than the trade imbalance might suggest — representing between 1.8 and 16.1 percent of exports to the United States in 2021. Researchers found that most exporters were making new products with inputs from many locations and local investment, not just relabeling Chinese products as Vietnamese.”

Malesky co-authored the Harvard Business School study, "Exports in Disguise: Trade Re-Routing During the U.S.-China Trade War," published in May 2024 as part of the HBS Working Paper Series, with Ebehi Iyoha, Jaya Y. Wen, Sung-Ju Wu and Bo Feng.