Economist Sean Turnell reflects on Myanmar’s turmoil and hope
In a fireside chat, the former economic consultant to Myanmar’s democratic government discussed the 2021 Myanmar military coup, his time in prison under the military junta, the country’s shattered economy, and the unwavering spirit of its people.
In the aftermath of the 2021 Myanmar military coup, Australian economist Sean Turnell, who had been serving as a special economic consultant to State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi and the National League for Democracy (NLD) government, was arrested, wrongfully convicted of espionage, and imprisoned for 650 days in some of Myanmar’s most notorious prisons.
Turnell, a former senior analyst at the Reserve Bank of Australia and a professor at Macquarie University, is an expert on macroeconomic policymaking, economic reform, and the role of financial institutions in economic development, with a particular focus on Australia, Myanmar, and the Indo-Pacific. He currently serves a senior fellow in the Southeast Asia Program at the Lowy Institute, focusing on developments in Myanmar, the wider region, and international economic issues.
During a fireside chat hosted by the Duke Center for International Development, Turnell spoke with political economist Edmund Malesky about his experiences in Myanmar, the country’s current landscape, and the resilience of the Burmese people.
A war economy
“It's just incredibly sad,” Turnell said in response to being asked about Myanmar’s current state.
All the economic reforms that the democratic government had worked on for a decade are destroyed, he said, and “the human cost of that is unimaginable.”
Since the coup, Turnell noted the taxation system and bond market have collapsed, inflation is high, and the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita is about 50% lower than the World Bank’s very conservative prediction.
Describing a “real war economy,” Turnell said the military junta lacks a vision for the economy. “The extent of any economic policy at all is just about grabbing sufficient resources to defeat the opposition and remain in power.”
One significant growth area, he noted, has been the illicit economy, with Myanmar becoming a top narcotics trafficking nation and experiencing a rise in trafficking scam centers operated by armed groups.
Socially, Turnell described Myanmar as a “catastrophe,” stating: “Vast flows of people are fleeing, thousands have been killed, and thousands are in prison.” He referenced the military’s widespread violence and crimes against the opposition and civilians, calling attention to the violence towards the Rohingya community, an ethnic Muslim minority group that has faced decades of repression.
Hope for Myanmar’s future
While the military still controls major cities, the air force, and advanced weaponry, Turnell remains hopeful about the collapse of the regime and the future of Myanmar.
“The gains that the opposition have made are real and substantial, and so we're at a stage now where the regime could collapse at any moment,” he said.
“In some ways, just the removal of the military [and] their claim on the resources of the country would itself cause a massive economic expansion,” he added.
Turnell credits the younger generation’s commitment for much of his optimism, highlighting their role in fighting and financing the war against the junta.
“I remain very optimistic because the young people – many of whom I've met [at Duke] today, the young people of Myanmar who fled, the ones who are in the country, the ones who are studying and preparing themselves – are immensely impressive.”
Turnell also praised the resilience and generosity of the Burmese people, calling them “extraordinary.” He recalled their support for political prisoners and shared his admiration for their ability to maintain hope and calm amidst the turmoil.
“To me, the Burmese people are sort of the best in the world, being ruled by the worst in the world,” Turnell expressed.