Learn the economic foundations of tax policy, revenue forecasting and statistical techniques needed to implement successful tax reforms.

Tax analysis and revenue forecasting have become increasingly important functions as governments undertake reforms of their tax systems to enhance revenues, improve the equity and efficiency of taxes, and promote economic growth.

Duke Center for International Development's Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting (TARF) program spans four weeks and delves into all major taxation policies, including value-added taxes, personal and corporate income taxes, excises, carbon taxes, property tax, trade taxes, and taxes on natural resources. Following a comprehensive introduction to the design of these diverse taxes, participants are trained to apply macroeconomic models, micro-simulation models and typical taxpayer models to design tax policies. To enhance the learning experience, program faculty offer personalized feedback and guidance to each participant, assisting them in the use of these models and in the preparation and presentation of policy proposals under different settings.

The TARF program has been running for more than 20 years with alumni from over 60 countries. Past participants have been from Ministries of Finance and Tax Administrations from all regions of the Globe as well as from the World Bank and UN Agencies. Our faculty have also customized this program for individual government ministries in Africa, Asia, Europe, Latin America and the Middle East.

About the Program

Our program trains participants on all major taxation policies and prepares participants for new developments in taxation arising from greater globalization and the digital economy. By the end of this program, participants will learn how to:

  • Design tax policies to maximize revenue in a sustainable manner.
  • Estimate how tax policies impact different income groups.
  • Assess the effectiveness of different tax policies.

Topics covered

Tax Analysis

  • Principles of taxation and tax reform, economic impact of taxes and subsidies
  • Consumption and expenditure taxes
  • Taxes on international trade, international tax harmonization
  • Wealth and asset taxation, property and real estate taxes
  • Taxation of natural resources, taxation of financial sectors
  • Inflation and taxation, taxation of e-commerce
  • Taxation of MNCs and BEPS
  • Tax and climate change
  • Tax incidence
  • International taxation
  • Taxation and the digital economy

Revenue Forecasting

  • Value-added and excise taxes, trade taxes
  • Personal income taxes, corporate income taxes, taxes on natural resources
  • Property taxes

Empirical Techniques and Models

  • Micro-simulation models, typical taxpayer model, macroeconomic models
  • GDP-based forecasting models, regression analysis, sampling techniques
  • Consumer expenditure surveys, receipts model

Special Topics may include

  • Risk management of tax compliance
  • Transfer pricing and international dispute resolution
  • Tax competition and investment incentives
  • Overview of tax treaties for double tax avoidance
  • Tax administration modernization


July 1 - 26, 2024

Application Deadline

June 7, 2024


All classes will be held at the Duke University Sanford School of Public Policy on Duke’s beautiful west campus, located in the vibrant city of Durham, North Carolina. 


Email the ExEd Team at dcidexed@duke.edu


Interested in similar courses on public financial management? Check out DCID’s summer course on Project Appraisal and Risk Management

Let us know if you would like to tailor this course for your organization.

This training program is open to individuals working professionally in tax policy, tax administration, economics, finance, accounting, management or other related fields. These include:

  • Public and private sector executives
  • Officials of revenue authorities and ministries of finance
  • Professionals in multilateral and regional banks
  • Consultants assisting decision makers in public and private sectors

Tuition for the TARF program is $11,000.

Tuition and fees cover:

  • Faculty instruction from Duke faculty and expert guest speakers from the World Bank, IMF, etc.
  • 3-Star Hotel accommodations with in-suite kitchenette and free breakfast
  • Transportation for all program-related activities
  • All course materials and resources
  • Use of a laptop computer
  • Emergency medical insurance

Tuition does not cover airfare, meals, or incidental expenses, as those vary from person to person. 

DCID’s team has a decades-long history of supporting capacity building efforts with partners around the world. Past partners for custom versions of our Tax Analysis and Revenue Forecasting program have included foreign governments, development banks and multilateral institutions. Our team works with partners to customize a training program’s content and duration based on partner needs. To further ensure a customized training program meets a partner’s need, we are able to deliver programming virtually or in off-campus locations, including Duke University’s downtown Washington, D.C. office.

Program Co-Directors

GP Shukla

Gangadhar P. (GP) Shukla, professor of the practice emeritus at Duke University, has provided technical assistance to over a dozen countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and has 20 years of experience serving the government of India in a variety of local, state and central government executive positions, with considerable practical experience in local government finance, urban development, public sector management, financial management, budgeting, and revenue and expenditure analysis.

Prior to Duke, he was a lecturer and a Development Fellow at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University and an Associate at the Harvard Institute for International Development (HIID). He earned a PhD in Political Economics and Government from Harvard University.

Sebastian James

Sebastian James, professor of the practice at Duke University, previously worked as a Senior Economist at the World Bank, where he advised several countries in Africa, Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe on the design of their tax policy and tax administration with an emphasis on economic growth and fiscal adequacy. He has also worked in cross-cutting areas covering the role of tax policy on investment policy, inequality and climate change and his research work on tax incentives is influential. Prior to the World Bank, he worked with the Indian Revenue Service and held senior positions in India’s Tax Administration and Tax Policy between 1996 and 2002. He earned a PhD from Harvard University.

Supporting Faculty


Peter Barnes
Senior Fellow


Roy Kelly
Professor of the Practice Emeritus


Cory Krupp
Professor of the Practice


Sanjay Kumar
Senior Fellow


Richard Schmalbeck
Simpson Thacher & Bartlett Distinguished Professor of Law

The program has something for everybody, from tax administrators to policy makers to academics. My experience at Duke opened my eyes about my own country… My view of the world will never be the same.

Patrick Kambewa, TARF participant