Burma: Reform, Coup, Crisis...Hope

From 2016 to 2021, Burma embarked upon a program of dramatic economic reform that aimed to turn around the country's poverty and isolation, and to lay the foundations of a democratic and peaceful state. Notwithstanding the obstacles, progress was made on these fronts until all was brought down in February 2021, when Burma's military once again took power in a coup. Burma's reformers were arrested and imprisoned (including the speaker), while the country descended into chaos and war. Burma's economy followed the downward trajectory as hard-won reforms were reversed. Today Burma is once more the poor outlier in a region characterised by rapid growth and great prospects. Yet, the courage of the Burmese people in resisting military rule has been both inspirational and successful. The ruling junta's days seem numbered, and with this hope remains. This presentation will explore Burma's efforts at economic reform, the resistance these inspired, and the events surrounding the coup and its aftermath. It will conclude with some thoughts of how change might come to Burma, and how the rest of the world can help bring it about. Sean Turnell has been a senior analyst at the Reserve Bank of Australia, a Professor of Economics at Macquarie University, a consultant to a range of international institutions (including the IMF and World Bank), and is currently a Senior Fellow at the Lowy Institute in Sydney. From 2016 to 2021 he served as economic adviser to Myanmar's democratic government. Following the military coup that took place in Myanmar in February 2021, Sean was imprisoned alongside Myanmar's democratic leadership. After 650 days of incarceration and severe ill-treatment, he was finally released in November 2022. Sean has written extensively on macroeconomic policymaking, economic reform, and the role of financial institutions in economic development, with a special focus on Australia, Myanmar, and the Indo-Pacific. His book on Myanmar's monetary and financial history, "Fiery Dragons," was published in 2009. In 2023 Penguin published Sean's book on his experience of being a captive in Myanmar, An "Unlikely Prisoner." His new book on economic reform in Myanmar, "The Best Laid Plans," has also just been published by Penguin/Lowy Institute.